Is U.S. Travel at Risk? Tariffs, Tourism Drops & Industry Warnings (April 2025) 

 Uncertainty is rising across the U.S. travel industry, and a mix of tariff tensions, economic slowdown, and falling visitor numbers may be to blame. Here’s what you need to know

 After tariff turmoil, there's concern that Trump policies will hurt travel
Travel stocks seesawed this week with the rest of the market, as the changing state of President Trump's tariff war created the kind of uncertainty travel companies warned could cause a pullback and as inbound visitation to the U.S. showed more signs of a slowdown. 
That state of uncertainty was only amplified when Trump paused reciprocal tariffs for most countries on April 9 for a 90-day period. In the meantime, travel companies -- and visitation numbers -- are already starting to show signs of strain.
Earlier in the day, Delta, which had opened up 2025 seeing "strength continuing into the new year," pulled its full-year financial guidance, saying that a "lack of economic clarity" made it "premature" to provide outlook on the rest of the year. 
"With broad economic uncertainty around global trade, growth has largely stalled," CEO Ed Bastian said in a statement announcing its Q1 results.

But during a morning call with analysts, president Glen Hauenstein said that given the recency of last week's policy changes and market moves, "it's early to assess the impact on consumer and corporate travel demand." He said they were keeping an eye on demand -- "closer than we've ever looked before" -- for signs of softness.
Economic uncertainty in financial markets has already hurt business travel this year, and TD Cowen analyst Tom Fitzgerald said in a guidance update on April 4 there was concern that tariffs will suppress demand further. He was also concerned that steep losses in the stock market would dampen consumption, especially among baby boomers.
"Uncertainty regarding global trade policy looks unlikely to abate any time soon, and the odds of a recession climb by the day," Fitzgerald wrote.
Since peaking on Inauguration Day, the Jets ETF fund, a composite of U.S. airline stocks, had fallen approximately 33% by April 4, including a drop that day of 4%. But after Trump called a 90-day halt to his broad tariff plan on April 9, stocks rose again, and the fund had climbed back by six points.
Other travel stocks bounced up after the tariff plan was put on hold.
Travel from overseas plunges 
The specter of tariffs was the latest to concern the domestic travel industry, which has seen a downturn from the high-spending international inbound market.
The National Travel & Tourism Office (NTTO) reported that overseas visitation to the U.S. fell 11.6% in March compared with the same period of 2024 and is down 3.3% year to date. Visitors from Western Europe fell 17.2% in March; from the Middle East by 17.7%; South America 10.4%; and Central America 23.9%. 
Those numbers do not include visitors from Canada or land crossings from Mexico. The NTTO said that Mexicans arriving by air to the U.S. fell 23.2% in March and 7.2% for the year. (Canadian numbers from the NTTO were not immediately available.)
The data came out weeks after Tourism Economics revised its U.S. inbound travel forecast, predicting a decline of 5.1% in 2025, down from an initial projection of 8.8% growth. Adding to the potential downturn, China issued a travel advisory for the U.S. this week, citing the deterioration in relations between the two countries. China was the U.S.'s top-spending overseas market prior to the pandemic. 
While testifying before Congress on April 8 on the need to modernize travel infrastructure, U.S. Travel Association CEO Geoff Freeman was asked about the falling inbound travel numbers. 
"We'd like to see that clear message right now, that Canadians, Europeans, all travelers, are encouraged to come to the United States," he said. "That message could be sent more loudly right now."
What travel agencies are saying
A small sampling of international travel agencies found that while some have experienced a decline in requests to travel to the U.S., more have so far seen no impact. 
Serandipians, a Switzerland-based consortium, polled 250 member agencies outside the U.S. in early April and found that the majority, 55%, had not seen any change in U.S. requests, while 35% of respondents had seen a decline. Of the Serandipians members polled, 10% said they experienced an increase in requests for travel to the U.S. 
Of those who reported a decline, 22% said the amount of U.S. requests had dropped up to 25%; 45% said requests had dropped between 26% and 50%, and 33% said they saw a drop of more than 51%.
Reasons cited were difficulties in visa acquisition, concerns about the current administration and policies, the perception of increased prices, and growing interest in other markets for luxury travel.
Jacqueline Dobson, president of Internova Leisure, which includes U.K. agency Barrhead Travel, said the U.K. market remains "extremely resilient" and that demand for the U.S. has not wavered. 
"While it is too early to say if there will be an impact on travel in 2025, we have not been affected so far, and we've certainly seen a stable picture when it comes to new bookings," Dobson said in a statement. "Past political and economic challenges have taught us that most travelers will continue to prioritize their own vacations."
One tailwind for U.K. travelers this year is increased airlift to U.S. destinations, especially regional airports, she said.
"Naturally, industry leaders on both sides of the Atlantic are going to be monitoring the broader economic situation over the coming months," she said. "But I do believe that the strength of tourism is currently in a good position to navigate the challenges ahead."
Robert Silk contributed to this report.